Old Barn 2026 CFB Files

CFB FILES FOR 2026

CREATED BY OLD BARN SPORTS AND ENTERTAINMENT CORPORATION SPONSORED BY ACE GAMBLING LLC

Section 1: Coaches

Coaches that can outperform the talent on their rosters, pull off a few upsets, or/and use a good season to get a job upgrade.

Kalani Sitake BYU: 12-2 last year with both losses at TTU Sitake is the prime example of this type of coach.
James Franklin VT: A disaster season for Franklin last year who always folds under pressure, but with some serious players stolen from PSU and the state of the ACC seems likely he pulls off a few upsets.
Eli Drinkwitz MIZZOU: Drinkwitz has had Mizzou close to being a real contender in the SEC a couple times and had some legit NFL talent to help. He still has a couple of those guys this year but it still doesn't compare to other schools in the SEC. Look for Eli to continue outcoaching his talent and competitors.
David Braun NW: Northwestern is 19-19 under Braun and pulled the major upset against PSU last year. I expect them to pull a similar upset this year especially with how much $ NW has put into football, this could be a big season for them.
Ryan Carty Delaware: The Blue Hens went 7-6 with a bowl win in their first year at the FBS level. Carty is clearly coaching beyond his talent and will probably do it again this year.
Jim Mora CSU: Mora led Uconn to back to back 9 win seasons and took over when Uconn was on the verge of being relegated to FCS. I think he will be able to win more games than people think, especially in the new version of the Pac-12.

Coaches that have rosters too good to fail and just have to hold on for the ride and not make too many mistakes, and/or a bad year could get them fired/ put them on the hot seat

Kalen Deboer Bama: In his first two years Deboer has failed to make an SEC championship game or make it out of the first round of the playoffs. The talent at Bama will get him at least a chance at the playoffs but he will be tested if he can truly coach in the SEC this season.
Lane Kiffin LSU: The team Lane built made the semifinal of the CFP, however he wasn’t coaching. It will be interesting to see with this loaded LSU team if he can coach them to a championship or at least make a legit run.
Dan Lanning Oregon: Lanning is here simply because of how loaded the ducks are this year. He has had a gold mine of talent and players every year and hasn’t made it past the semifinal of the playoff.
Joey McGuire TTU: This program seems to just be run by NIL money they got shelled in the playoffs last year but look to have a solid roster again. I wonder if McGuire is a solid coach or he is just riding the coattails of the boosters.
Billy Napier JMU: Had great players at Florida and could never put it together but he is now in an easier conference. He also is taking over the best current roster and program in that conference. A bad season for him and his tenure at JMU could be over quickly.

Top 5 Bear Bryant Coach of the Year candidates:

Lane Kiffin LSU: What he did in the portal has him as a favorite. A 1-2 loss season with a couple playoff wins could possibly get him this award, based on it being his first year at LSU. Anything better than that and I would count him as a lock to win it.
Dan Lanning Oregon: With a loaded roster another B1G championship and a trip to at least the natty could get Lanning the win. Obviously a Natty would likely make him an auto-winner as well.
Pete Golding Ole Miss: If Golding has a similar season or better than Ole Miss last year I could see him winning. Natty would make it a guarantee.
Kyle Whittingham UofM: If Michigan can end up in the playoff this year and either win a first round game or lose a close one to a finalist or the eventual champion I could see Kyle winning. I think there are some outside factors that could play into it but don’t count him out.
Kirby Smart UGA: Pretty simple if UGA wins the natty I think Kirby would win it. If he wins the SEC championship and the Natty it would be 100%.

Honorable Mention: Kalani Sitake BYU: If BYU gets through the Big 12 and into the playoff; wins 1 or 2 games I think there is a chance he could win it.

Section 2: Roster Turnover stats/notes

Returning Heisman top 10 finalists: Julian Sayin OSU (4), Jeremiah Smith OSU (6), Gunnar Stockton UGA (7), Trinidad Chambliss Ole Miss (8)
Returning projected top Non-QB 2027 picks (Walter Football): J. Smith WR OSU, Dylan Stewart DE SC, Cam Coleman WR UT, Leo Moore CB ND, Yhonzae Pierre DE Bama, Collin Simmons LB UT, Ryan Williams WR Bama, Sammy Brown LB Clem, Kewan Lacy RB Ole Miss, Ellis Robinson CB UGA, Nick Marsh WR IU, J-H Daley DE UofM, David Stone DT OU, Suntarine Perkins LB Ole Miss, Trevor Goosby OT UT
Returning top 10 QBs (own opinion);

1. Dante Moore Oregon

2. Arch Manning UT

3. Marcel Reed A&M

4. Bryce Underwood UofM

5. Gunnar Stockton UGA

6. Julian Sayin OSU

7. Trinidad Chambliss Ole Miss

8. CJ Carr ND

9. Jayden Maiava USC

10. John Mateer OU

Top 15 (P4) teams with most returning starters (not including portal)

USC-15
UGA-14
Oregon-14
ND-14
OU-14
TTU-13
BYU-13
Tenn-13
UT-12
OSU-11
SMU-11
UofM-10
IU-10
Miami-10
Ole Miss-10

Top 15 P4 teams based on total roster turnover in Portal Only (CFBDepth.com + own opinion)

Kentucky +15
UCLA +15
Ole Miss +11
Wisco +17
LSU +2
IU +5
Arizona +10
SC +9
NW +10
Mizzou +10
Auburn +8
TTU +1
A&M +2
ASU +8
Wake Forest +13

Top 15 P4 teams based on Total Snaps played on roster (#s from puntandrally.com )

Colorado - 21,065
Ole Miss - 19,361
UCLA - 19,134
TTU - 19,098
UVA - 18,526
UT - 18,484
LSU - 17,950
Tenn - 17,717
OK St - 17,651
Nebraska - 17,344
OU - 17,216
SC - 16,880
Auburn - 16,878
UF - 16,843
A&M - 16,838

My Top 5 teams based on total roster turnover

Ole Miss
Oregon
Georgia
LSU
OSU

Top 5 Sleepers based on total roster turnover

UCLA
Colorado
Auburn
Virginia Tech
Kentucky

Section 3: Building a Champion and the path to doing it

Building a Champion: Who has the right pieces across the entire program to win a championship (tangible things like Coaches, Roster, NIL, etc.)

The Clear Powerhouses with all the pieces: Georgia, LSU, Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame
Powerhouses but slightly lacking in a few areas: Texas, Texas A&M, Alabama, Michigan, Ole Miss
The Outliers floating on a bubble: Indiana (Cignetti), Texas Tech (Massive NIL)

The Path: Teams that are on the right Path to winning a championship

LSU: Spent the money on Kiffin and in the portal/ recruiting to put them on the path to a championship. The next step for them is to win big games they would normally lose under Kelly. They could easily conquer their demons by starting 4-0 with wins against Clemson, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M. Week 1 against Clemson is a must win for them to keep them on the path.
Oregon: The Ducks have been in the mix for years but always seem to fall short of the ultimate goal. Dan Lanning seems to have them on the best path and a legit contender every season. The path for Oregon is simply to win the Natty and if they keep that the goal I think they will eventually crack through. They could also use a bit of luck in the bracket another undefeated season into the playoff this year could set them up nicely.
Notre Dame: Marcus Freeman has transitioned the Irish pretty well into the NIL era and has them set for another season as a contender. To conquer the demons of losing in the natty and missing the playoff last year they need to leave no doubt and go 12-0. The November game against Miami will be huge. Getting a win to stay undefeated against the team that bumped you out of the playoff last year would have them riding high into the playoff.
Ole Miss: It seemed like the Rebs were floating on the Kiffin bubble and it was just a matter of time before he left and the program fell apart. What they did in the playoff last year completely changed the trajectory of this program. Golding collecting 2 playoff wins in his first two games as head coach has him primed for a potential legendary run similar to Cignetti. Another playoff appearance could have them fired up and sitting in the bracket as one of the most experienced teams in it. An early win against LSU could have them flying up the rankings early.
Texas Tech: Along with the massive amounts of NIL money spent on their roster the red raiders spent even more on their facilities. By building a giant facility attached to their stadium and keeping it upgraded to the highest standard TTU has laid the groundwork to be a powerhouse in college football. The next step for them is to either bring in an elite coaching staff or have their current one develop into that. A legit playoff win or two is required otherwise they are just another Texas program with unlimited money that can’t win the big ones.

Section 4: NIL does spending more actually matter?

NIL total $ spent so far in 2026:

Texas 74 Mil
LSU 66 Mil
OSU 64 Mil
Oregon 60 Mil
Texas A&M 57 Mil
Miami 55 Mil
Notre Dame 52 Mil
Tennessee 50 Mil
Alabama 49 Mil
Georgia 48 Mil

NIL estimated $ spent top 5 last year:

Texas 47 Mil
Miami 44 Mil
Ohio State 43.5 Mil
LSU 43 Mil
Oregon 43 Mil

Only 3 out of the 5 made the playoff and only one made it to the semi-final

So does NIL matter?

There is definitely a standard NIL amount needed to be competitive (for a playoff spot) i’d say the minimum would be around 30 Mil and the average around 42 Mil
Having a high amount of NIL $ in no way guarantees a team is a playoff contender
I think similarly to pro sports getting good players on good contracts and not cramming your roster with overpaid and underperforming players will be more important than the actual amount spent

Section 5: Big Ten Deep Dive

Illinois Illini: 2025 5-4 B1G record 9-4 Overall

Best wins in 2025- @ Duke 45-19, USC 34-32, Tennessee in Music City Bowl 30-28
Lost 63-10 @ Indiana and at Wisconsin 27-10 two major losses that ruined a pretty decent season
Biggest games in 2026- at OSU week 4, Oregon week 8, Iowa week 12
Estimated record 8-4, Highest 10-2, Lowest 6-6
Not a lot of crazy talent on this roster but they have been a decent program recently and have a favorable schedule. An early matchup against OSU and then games against Purdue and MSU leading into a week 7 BYE before getting Oregon at home in week 8 could have them ready for a good run down the stretch. The last 3 weeks of the season @ UCLA vs Iowa then @ Northwestern will show what this team really is.

Indiana Hoosiers: 2025 8-0 B1G and 16-0 National champions

We all know how the Hoosiers did in 2025
Biggest games in 2026- vs OSU week 7, @ UofM week 8, USC week 11, @ Washington week 12
Estimated record 9-3, Highest 11-1, Lowest 8-4
Cignetti did a good job retooling in the portal but being one of the oldest teams last year they have lost a lot of talent, maybe more than people realize. They have a very easy early schedule but face two clusters of OSU UofM in back to back weeks and USC Washington, also those 4 games are in a span of 6 weeks. I don’t see them coming out of that in a good spot and even if they win 2 out of 4 and end up 10-2 I don’t see them in the playoffs. Although not playing a ranked team until week 7 (OSU) or a P4 opponent until week 4 (Northwestern) they will likely be pretty healthy and could use that to keep rolling.

Iowa Hawkeyes: 2025 6-3 B1G 9-4 OVR

Best wins in 2025- 25-24 vs PSU Week 8, beat Wisco Minny and Neb by 30+ points, Vandy 34-27 in Reliaquest bowl
Lost 20-15 vs IU and 18-16 vs Oregon, lost all 4 games by less than 5 pts
Biggest games in 2026- @ UofM week 4, vs OSU week 5, at UW week 6
Estimated record 8-4, highest 10-2, Lowest 7-5
That 3 week stretch is gonna be tough if they can find a way to win one of those games (at UW most likely), they then have a bye week and a very easy second half of the season. However they would have to win 6 in a row 6 straight weeks so they likely end up around 8-4.

Maryland Terrapins: 2025 1-8 B1G 4-8 OVR

Best 2025 Win- week 4 at Wisco 27-10
Lost close games vs UW Neb and UCLA, lost 50-10 vs IU
Biggest games in 2026- UCLA week 4, week 13 vs PSU
Estimated record 3-9, highest 6-6, lowest 2-10
Went 0-8 after starting 4-0 last season and any B1G schedule is going to be tough for the Terps. Add in 9 straight B1G games this year along with 2 non-conf games that won't be easy and it's not looking like a good year. However if Malik Washington can carry them to a few wins it may not be that bad.

Michigan Wolverines: 2025 7-2 B1G 9-4 OVR

Best 2025 wins- at Neb 30-27 week 4, at MSU 31-20 week 8
Early losses 24-13 at OU week 2 and week 7 at USC 31-13 made playoff run difficult
Biggest games in 2026- OU week 2, at Oregon week 11, at OSU week 13
Estimated record 10-2, Highest 11-1, lowest 8-4
Not an easy schedule for the Wolverines this season, but they do have the benefit of the tougher games being spread out across the schedule. Similar to last season the week 2 game will be a must win to set up a playoff run. The level Underwood and the offense are at will decide if they are legit contenders.

Michigan State Spartans: 2025 1-8 B1G 4-8 OVR

Best 2025 win- week 2 vs BC 42-40 2OT
Multiple multi-score losses, lost 8 in a row
Biggest games in 2026- at Wisco week 5, vs NW week 7
Estimated record 3-9, highest 4-8, lowest 1-11
The Spartans were gutted by a failed coaching hire in Jonathan Smith last year and were gutted by the portal this offseason. With one of the more difficult schedules in the B1G it will not be a fun year in East Lansing. 4 wins would feel like a miracle for this team under new HC Pat Fitzgerald.

Minnesota Golden Gophers: 2025 5-4 B1G 8-5 OVR

Best 2025 wins- vs NEB 24-6 week 8, vs Wisco 17-7 week 13
Lost 42-3 to Iowa, 38-35 to NW both on road
Biggest games in 2026- vs Miss st week 2, vs Iowa week 8
Estimated record 5-7, Highest 7-5, lowest 4-8
A rough schedule for the Gophers as well but they did a decent job in the portal and have some talent coming back. The week 2 game vs Mississippi State will be a good test but even if they can win that one they still have to play an estimated 5 ranked teams. If the portal talent helps and Drake Lindsey improves I could see them being decent.

Nebraska Cornhuskers: 2025 4-5 B1G 7-6 OVR

Best 2025 wins - vs Cincy 20-17 week 1, at UCLA week 11 28-21
Lost 24-6 at Minnesota week 8, USC week 10 21-17 killed playoff hopes
Biggest games in 2026- week 6 vs IU, at Iowa week 13
Estimated Record 7-5, Highest 8-4, lowest 6-6
A very easy first 5 games for the Huskers but they will face estimated ranked teams in 5 of their last 7. They do have the talent to have a solid season. It comes down to if they can compete for a spot in the top 25 or will they end up 7-5 like they usually do.

Northwestern Wildcats: 2025 4-5 B1G 7-6 OVR

Best 2025 Wins: week 5 vs UCLA 17-14, week 7 at PSU 22-21
2 early losses week 1 vs Tulane and week 3 vs Oregon
Biggest games in 2026- week 3 vs Colorado, week 5 vs PSU
Estimated record 8-4, Highest 9-3, lowest 6-6
A very tough schedule for NW especially when compared to last year. Two solid non-conf opponents to start the season and games against OSU, Oregon, and Indiana will be a good challenge for the Wildcats. I think they will have a similar season as last year but with the difference in schedule it will still be an improvement for a program that seems on the rise.

Ohio State Buckeyes: 2025 9-1 B1G 12-2 OVR

Best 2025 Wins: 14-7 vs Texas week 1, week 13 vs UofM
12-0 then lost B1G champ and Playoff game
Biggest games in 2026- at Texas week 2, Oregon week 9, UofM week 13
Estimated record 8-4, highest 10-2, lowest 7-5
With one of the tougher schedules in the country and a lighter roster than last year things could be disappointing for the Buckeyes. They did get some help in the portal but lost 3 of their game breakers on defense to the NFL. They will have to find a way to win without those guys and rely on Sayin/Smith to make the big moment plays.

Oregon Ducks:2025 8-2 B1G 13-2 OVR

Best 2025 wins- at PSU week 5 30-24 2OT, vs TTU 23-0 (Orange Bowl)
Destroyed by IU in peach bowl 56-22 lost to them in week 7 30-20
Biggest games in 2026- at USC week 4, at OSU week 10, UofM week 11
Estimated Record 11-1, Highest 12-0, Lowest 9-3
The Ducks are undefeated the last 2 years when not playing OSU or IU. The hardest part of this schedule will be facing OSU and UofM in back to back weeks. If they can win one of those I think they end up back in the B1G championship game. This is the toughest schedule Oregon has ever had but I think they are good enough to handle it.

Penn State Nittany Lions: 2025 3-6 B1G 7-6 OVR

Best 2025 win - vs Clemson 22-10 Pinstripe Bowl
Lost 30-24 2OT vs oregon week 5 which led to 6 losses in a row and firing of JF
Biggest games in 2026- at NW week 5, at Washington week 10
Estimated Record 8-4, Highest 9-3, lowest 7-5
After the chaos of last season and the offseason PSU has a chance for a decent season. That is mainly due to the ease of their schedule and the talent they have left over and brought in from Iowa State. Weeks 5-10 will be the main part of their season as it contains the only 3 games against estimated ranked teams. I would keep an eye out for an early upset against this team though.

Purdue Boilermakers: 2025 0-9 B1G 2-10 OVR

Best 2025 win 31-0 vs Ball State week 1
Out of respect we will skip this part
Biggest games in 2026- vs Wake Forest game 2, week 12 vs Wisco
Estimated record 3-9, highest 5-7, lowest 1-11
The Boilermakers did a decent job in the portal but they still have some serious work to do. The week 2 game vs Wake Forest will be a good measure for them; win and maybe they have a decent year. Lose and they might be heading towards another rough season, but hey at least they have basketball.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights: 2025 2-7 B1G 5-7 OVR

Best 2025 win- 35-20 vs Maryland week 10
Started 3-0 then lost 4 in a row, a 38-28 loss vs Iowa at home in week 4 started the streak
Biggest games in 2026- at Boston College week 2, vs MSU week 13
Estimated record 3-9, Highest 6-6, lowest 2-10
They lost a couple players to the portal and didn’t reload with much talent after last season. Their schedule is manageable; the week 2 game at BC will be a big one and maybe they can find a few wins against some of the lesser B1G opponents. However it is likely there is another rough season in Jersey and they do not make a bowl game.

UCLA Bruins: 2025 3-6 B1G 3-9 OVR

Best 2025 Win - vs PSU week 6 42-37
Lost to UNLV and New Mexico in back to back weeks which destroyed their season and got coach fired
Biggest games in 2026- at CAL week 1, vs Wisco week 6
Estimated record 6-6, highest 7-5, lowest 3-9
With Chesney coming in as coach from JMU and a decent roster turn-around mainly with help from the portal, things will get better for UCLA. While they face a decently tough schedule for a team of their caliber, I think 6-6 is the most likely result. They start out with a tough week 1 game vs a good rival Cal team, have games at Oregon and Michigan, then USC at home to finish the season. They will have to beat the beatable teams on their schedule unless it could be another 3-9 year.

USC Trojans: 2025 7-2 B1G 9-4 OVR

Best 2025 Wins- vs Michigan 31-13 week 7, vs Iowa week 11 26-21
Lost to Illinois on the road 34-32 which in the end kept them out of the playoff
Biggest games in 2026- vs Washington week 6, at PSU week 7
Estimated record 8-4, Highest 9-3, lowest 7-5
They unfortunately play the Ducks, Washington, and PSU all in a row weeks 5-7. That combined with still having to play OSU and IU later in the season makes them a solid 8-4. They also lost some depth in the portal so any early injuries could make things a lot more difficult.

Washington Huskies: 2025 5-4 B1G 9-4 OVR

Best 2025 Wins- at UCLA week 12 48-14, LA Bowl 38-10 vs Boise st
Lost 13-10 at Wisco week 10 which killed playoff chances
Biggest games in 2026- at USC week 5, vs PSU week 9
Estimated record 8-4, Highest 9-3, Lowest 7-5
Almost in a very similar situation as their former PAC-12 rival USC, their week 5 matchup is going to be a big one for both sides. If they win, they have to play Iowa the next week, and then finish the season with IU and Oregon in back to back weeks. So similar to USC I have them at 8-4 good teams but not good enough to beat the big guns in the conference.

Wisconsin Badgers: 2025 2-7 B1G, 4-8 OVR

Best 2025 Wins- week 10 vs UW 13-10, vs illinois week 12 21-10
Lost 6 in a row that started with a 38-14 loss at home to Bama
Biggest 2026 games- week 1 Shamrock Series vs ND in Lambeau Field, week 9 at Iowa
Estimated record 6-6, highest 8-4, lowest 4-8
There are some decent expectations with this team especially for Luke Fickell this season and their schedule is the reason. Besides playing ND week 1 they don’t play OSU, Oregon, Michigan, or Indiana this season. USC and Iowa in back to back weeks will be tough but if they can find a win against one of them they could end up having a much better season.

Predictions:

Conference Championship- Oregon (12-0) vs Michigan (11-1)

Michigan gets revenge after losing in reg season to Oregon, win another B1G championship

Playoff Teams- Oregon 12-1, Michigan 12-1, Indiana 10-2

Bubble Teams- Ohio State 9-3, USC 9-3

OSU likely gets in at 9-3 based on sos and resume, USC probably not in would need some upsets to happen

Just Outside the Bubble- Iowa 8-4, Washington 8-4

Best Bet: Oregon to reach conf. Championship +100 (draft kings)

Final Standings:

1	Oregon	9-0	12-1	0.923
2	Michigan	8-1	12-1	0.923
3	Ohio State	7-2	9-3	0.750
4	Indiana	7-2	10-2	0.833
5	USC	6-3	9-3	0.750
6	Northwestern	5-4	8-4	0.667
7	Washington	5-4	8-4	0.667
8	Iowa	5-4	8-4	0.667
9	Illinois	5-4	7-5	0.583
10	Penn State	5-4	8-4	0.667
11	Nebraska	4-5	7-5	0.583
12	Minnesota	3-6	5-7	0.417
13	UCLA	3-6	5-7	0.417
14	Maryland	3-6	5-7	0.417
15	Wisconsin	3-6	5-7	0.417
16	Michigan State	2-7	3-9	0.250
17	Rutgers	1-8	3-9	0.250
18	Purdue	0-9	1-11	0.083

Section 6: SEC Deep Dive

Alabama Crimson Tide: 2025 8-2 SEC 11-4 OVR

Best 2025 Wins- week 5 at UGA 24-21, CFP 1st rd at OU 34-24
Lost week 1 at FSU 31-17, 38-3 vs IU in Rose Bowl
Biggest 2026 games- vs UGA week 6, vs TAMU week 8, at LSU week 10
Estimated record 9-3, Highest 11-1, lowest 8-4
The Tide have some questions on offense and lost some talent in the portal but they are still loaded on defense like last year. They play UGA Tenn and TAMU weeks 6, 7 and 8 have a bye week 9 then head into death valley week 10 for LSU. That 5 week span will decide whether they are a playoff team or not. They also have had Auburn nipping at their heels for awhile now. With that being said I see them still having a good season and probably back in or just outside of the CFP.

Arkansas Razorbacks: 2025 0-8 SEC 2-10 OVR

Best 2025 win- vs Ark St 56-14 week 2
Same as Purdue no comment out of respect
Biggest 2026 games- at Vandy week 7, vs SC week 11
Estimated record 3-9, Highest 4-8, Lowest 2-10
After a disaster of a year the Hogs did a decent job reloading in the portal, and with some belief in KJ Jackson they could improve a bit. They have a tough start with Utah week 2, UGA week 3, and TAMU week 5. I think their best shot at an SEC win is at home vs SC, or to pull off a classic Arkansas upset.

Auburn Tigers: 2025 1-7 SEC 5-7 OVR

Best 2025 win- at Baylor 38-24 week 1
Lost to every SEC opponent except Arkansas, lost 27-20 vs Bama
Biggest 2026 games- week 1 vs Baylor, week 3 vs Florida, at Bama week 13
Estimated record 5-7, highest 7-5, lowest 3-9
The absorption of Golesh and most of the USF roster should help kickstart the rebuild for Auburn but they face a daunting schedule for a first year coach. They have no room for error and have to win the games they should. I don’t see them pulling off any major upsets either as they play 4 estimated ranked teams on the road. 5-6 wins would be a good start for Golesh with this schedule but things could get messy quickly for the Tigers.

Florida Gators: 2025 2-6 SEC 4-8 OVR

Best 2025 win- week 5 vs Texas 29-21
Started 1-3 including a 18-16 loss to USF week 2, week 9 24-20 vs UGA
Biggest 2026 games- vs Auburn week 3, week 10 vs OU, week 13 vs FSU
Estimated record 7-5, Highest 8-4, lowest 5-7
The Gators look a little better going into this season than last year but still have a first year head coach. Week 3 vs Auburn will be a good test to see what they have, and they will really have to battle through the middle of the schedule. Week 4 vs Ole Miss and week 10 vs OU are prime Florida upset opportunities. They get to 7 wins if they pull off one of those upsets and handle business vs their lower opponents.

Georgia Bulldogs: 2025 8-2 SEC Champions 12-2 OVR

2025 Best wins- week 11 vs Texas 35-10, SEC Championship 28-7 vs Bama
Lost in Sugar Bowl to Ole Miss 39-34
Biggest 2026 games- week 6 at Bama, week 9 at Ole Miss
Estimated record 11-1, Highest 12-0, lowest 10-2
Although they are one of the younger teams in CFB they still returned a lot of starters from last year and should be considered a top contender. They also have a favorable schedule compared to the rest of the SEC so they will likely be back in Atlanta this December. There is no doubt the two road games at Bama and Ole Miss will be tough but outside of that they have Oklahoma at home and don't play any other estimated ranked teams.

Kentucky Wildcats: 2025 2-6 SEC 5-7 OVR

Best 2025 wins- week 9 at Auburn 10-3, week 10 vs Florida 38-7
Lost 5 games where they gave up 35+ points including a 41-0 loss to Louisville week 13
Biggest 2026 games- vs Bama week 2, vs Louisville week 13
Estimated record 5-7, Highest 8-4, lowest 4-8
Another portal-built team under new Coach Will Stein facing a tough schedule that includes an estimated 6 ranked teams. They start off with back to back games against Bama and TAMU weeks 2 and 3, followed by another back to back with LSU and OU weeks 6 and 7. Repeating another 5-7 year would be alright but if they can get the offense to click with the Oregon influence of Stein maybe they could surprise some people.

LSU Tigers: 2025 3-5 SEC 7-6 OVR

Best 2025 wins- week 1 vs Clemson 17-10, vs SC 20-10 week 7
Lost 49-25 vs TAMU week 8 fired B Kelly two days later
Biggest 2026 games- at Ole Miss week 3, vs TAMU week 4, Bama week 10, Texas week 11
Estimated Record 9-3, Highest 10-2, Lowest 7-5
One of the best portal classes ever and a brand new HC in Lane Kiffin could be enough to get the Tigers in the playoff. As loaded as this team may seem they have one of the toughest schedules in the country. An early back to back with Ole Miss and TAMU weeks 3 and 4 and then 3 games in a row vs estimated ranked teams weeks 10-12 could be too big of a task for LSU. I think the talent on the team will get them to 9 wins as they get better throughout the year.

Mississippi State Bulldogs: 2025 1-7 SEC 5-8 OVR

Best 2025 win- vs ASU week 2 24-20
Lost first 4 sec games, took Tenn and Texas to OT
Biggest 2026 games- at SC week 3, vs Auburn week 11
Estimated record 4-8, Highest 6-6, lowest 2-10
The Bulldogs got some help in the portal and showed some fight last season but I don’t see much improvement. They play 5 estimated ranked teams and 4 of those teams they play in a 5 week stretch from week 5 to 9. They are going to have to fight and scrap with the lower sec teams for wins or maybe they can pull off one of the upsets they almost had last season.

Missouri Tigers: 2025 4-4 SEC 8-5 OVR

Best 2025 wins- week 4 vs SC 29-20, week 8 at Auburn 23-17 2OT
5-1 heading into week 8 lost 17-10 at Vandy, finished 2-4 last 6 games
Biggest 2026 games- at Kansas week 2, vs OU week 13
Estimated record 7-5, Highest 8-4, Lowest 6-6
Mizzou has been a consistent 7-9 win team and looks to do it again this year. They have two back to backs against TAMU and Ole Miss weeks 6 and 7 and then Texas and UGA weeks 10 and 11. I think if they can pull a ranked win off and handle the rest of their schedule they could get to 8 wins. I can’t really see them doing much better than that with this schedule as they also have a bad habit of finding a way to shoot themselves in the foot.

Oklahoma Sooners: 6-3 SEC 10-3 OVR

Best 2025 Wins- week 2 vs UofM 24-13, week 11 at Bama 23-21
Lost 34-24 vs Bama first round of CFP
Biggest 2026 games- Week 2 at UofM, at UGA week 4, vs Ole Miss week 11
Estimated record 8-4, Highest 9-3, Lowest 7-5
The Sooners have a tough first 4 weeks playing on the road at UofM and UGA. That could likely put them at 2 losses early in the season. With a week 5 bye they will play 8 straight SEC games which is no easy task, and I don’t see them coming out of it with less than 2 losses. They also play at Miss St and at Florida in that stretch which could put them in potential upset territory.

Ole Miss Rebels: 8-1 SEC 13-2 OVR

Best 2025 Wins- week 9 at OU 34-26, Sugar Bowl vs UGA 39-34
Lost Semi Final Fiesta Bowl vs Miami 31-27
Biggest 2026 Games- week 3 vs LSU, week 8 at Texas, week 10 vs UGA
Estimated Record 10-2, Highest 12-0, Lowest 8-4
The Rebs could potentially be the best team in the SEC and maybe the country. They were the best in the SEC last season and return a lot of those players while gaining more in the portal than they lost. The question for them is whether Pete Golding can keep this team winning for a whole season or not. They also don’t face as difficult of a schedule as the other top teams in the SEC.

South Carolina Gamecocks: 1-7 SEC 4-8 OVR

Best 2025 win- vs Kentucky week 5 35-13
Went 2-8 in last 10 games after starting 2-0
Biggest 2026 games- week 5 vs Kentucky, week 13 at Clemson
Estimated Record- 5-7, Highest 6-6, lowest 4-8
The Gamecocks seemed to miss the fire your coach memo last season but that is likely because they still have Sellers and a decent roster. They play an estimated 5 ranked teams and have games at Florida and at Clemson. I just don’t see enough from this team on either side of the ball to have a big season. If they can end up beating either Florida or Clemson I could see them getting 6 to be bowl eligible.

Tennessee Volunteers: 2025 4-4 SEC 8-5 OVR

Best 2025 wins- at Miss st week 5 41-34 OT, at Kentucky week 8 56-34
Lost 44-41 in OT vs UGA week 3, lost music city bowl vs Illinois 30-28
Biggest 2026 games- at GT week 2, at Bama week 7, at Vandy week 13
Estimated record 8-4, Highest 9-3, Lowest 6-6
There seems to be a decent opportunity for the Vols this year mainly with the talent they have on defense. Whoever ends up at QB will be a first year starter which could result in QB issues and make it a rough season for the Big Orange. The opening test at GT week 2 and a big game vs Texas week 4 will provide a good read on the level of this team. Week 7 vs Bama in a similar QB situation could be an upset opportunity that could change their season.

Texas Longhorns: 2025 6-2 SEC 10-3 OVR

Best 2025 wins- vs Oklahoma 23-6 week 7, vs TAMU week 13 27-17, vs UofM cheez it bowl 41-27
Upset on the road by Florida week 6 29-21 ultimately killed playoff chances, lost 35-10 at UGA week 11
Biggest 2026 games- week 2 vs OSU, week 8 vs Ole Miss, week 13 at TAMU
Estimated record 10-2, Highest 12-0, lowest 7-5
The hype seems real for Texas especially on Offense however their schedule won't be making things easy for them. Week 2 vs OSU is one of the biggest early games they will ever play. A win in that game could get them to 12-0. They have 3 tough road games at Tenn, LSU, and TAMU and the Longhorns seem to find a way to get upset early in the season. I think if they end up with around 2 losses in the first 6 weeks they will crumble with the second half of the schedule.

Texas A&M Aggies: 2025 7-1 SEC 11-2 OVR

Best 2025 wins- at ND week 3 41-40, at LSU week 9 49-25
11-0 lost last 2 games of season week 13 at Texas 27-17, CFP rd 1 vs Miami 10-3
Biggest 2026 games at LSU week 4, at Bama week 8, vs Texas week 13
Estimated record 10-2, Highest 11-1, Lowest 8-4
With Marcell reed back and some help from the portal the Aggies are set for another good year. They have a favorable first 9 games even though they have to go on the road at LSU and Bama (play LSU the week after they play Ole Miss and Bama after back to back weeks vs UGA and Tenn). November will be risky as they have Tenn OU and Texas to finish the last three weeks of the season.

Vanderbilt Commodores: 2025 6-2 SEC 10-3 OVR

Best 2025 wins- week 8 vs LSU 31-24, at Tenn week 13 45-24
Lost on road to Bama and Texas missed playoff, Lost 34-27 vs Iowa in Reliaquest Bowl
Biggest 2026 Games- week 8 at Kentucky, week 13 vs Tenn
Estimated record 6-6, highest 7-5, Lowest 4-8
Vandy has a true freshman set to start but did retool its offense well in the portal. They don't have as easy of a schedule as it may seem due to some tough road matchups vs non estimated ranked teams, while still playing 4 est. ranked teams. If they can win a few of those road matchups and maybe pull off another upset against Bama they could get to 7 wins.

Predictions:

Conference Championship- Georgia (11-1) vs Texas (10-2)

The Bulldogs continue to own the Longhorns and win another SEC title

Playoff Teams- Georgia 12-1, Texas 10-3, Ole Miss 10-2, Texas A&M 10-2

Bubble Teams- LSU 10-2, Alabama 10-2

LSU likely in based on sos and resume, Bama more than likely in unless 2 really good ACC or Big 12 teams emerge.

Just outside the bubble- Oklahoma 8-4, Tennessee 8-4, Florida 8-4

Best Bet- Georgia to win SEC championship +260

Final Standings:

1	Georgia	8-1	11-1	0.917
2	Texas	7-2	10-2	0.833
3	Ole Miss	7-2	10-2	0.833
4	Texas A&M	7-2	10-2	0.833
5	LSU	7-2	10-2	0.833
6	Alabama	7-2	10-2	0.833
7	Oklahoma	6-3	8-4	0.667
8	Tennessee	5-4	8-4	0.667
9	Florida	5-4	8-4	0.667
10	Missouri	3-6	6-6	0.500
11	Auburn	3-6	6-6	0.500
12	Kentucky	2-7	5-7	0.417
13	South Carolina	2-7	4-8	0.333
14	Arkansas	1-8	4-8	0.333
15	Mississippi State	1-8	4-8	0.333
16	Vanderbilt	1-8	4-8	0.333

Section 7: OLine Rankings

Notre Dame Fighting Irish- With 4 of the 5 starters all in the top 40 OL rankings for the 2027 NFL draft the Irish have the best OL group in the country. As one of the premier OL factories in the country they are also deep with likely more NFL draft picks as well.
Texas Longhorns- With probably the best Tackle duo in the country and a very good interior as well Texas comes in at number 2. This is the group they need with a QB like Manning and by adding depth in the portal they can handle the wear and tear.
LSU Tigers- With the big portal get of Jordan Seaton in addition to an already solid OL LSU is going to be a fun unit to watch. They also built depth in the portal but the question for this unit will be if they can get the elite pass blocking needed to go far.
Michigan Wolverines- Although a fairly young group they are loaded with experience and NFL talent. Injuries hurt them last year but they have depth to deal with it. They are also one of the only returning units without any starters from the portal.
Georgia Bulldogs- This is a very good unit and similar to Michigan is pretty young. They have a true freshman set to start at guard and aren’t as deep as the other groups. However with two Senior starters in Bobo and Greene they will still be one of the best units in the country.
Indiana Hoosiers- The Hoosier OL could be the sole part of the team this season with top ranked OT Carter Smith returning. The rest of the OL is also loaded with experience having mostly played or started in the last 2 seasons. However, similar to Georgia they lack solid depth behind those guys.
Iowa Hawkeyes- One of the most consistent OL groups in the country this looks like another good squad for Iowa. Ranked the best unit in 2025 they are back with most starters returning and look to be a top unit in the country once again.
Ohio State Buckeyes- While this unit didn’t look great they are returning a lot of starters. They are also pretty balanced and capable of run and pass blocking well. They also have a lot of potential NFL draft picks; they just have to play as more of a unit.
Kentucky Wildcats- A portal built unit loaded with experience easily gets them in the top 10. The question will be with 4 out of 5 starters from the portal will they be able to gel and play well as a unit.
Texas A&M Aggies- Another good unit with some NFL talent and just like Kentucky has 4 out of 5 starters from the portal. This unit has the potential to be one of the best, but has their hands full trying to protect the dynamic Marcel Reed.

Honorable Mentions: Oregon, SMU, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Texas Tech

Section 8: Conference Winners and Playoff Predictions

AAC- 10-2 Tulane vs 8-4 Memphis, Tulane AAC Champs 11-2

ACC- 11-1 Miami vs 10-2 Georgia Tech, Miami ACC Champs 12-1

Big 12- 12-0 Texas Tech vs 11-1 BYU, Texas Tech Big 12 Champs 13-0

Big Ten- 12-0 Oregon vs 11-1 Michigan, Michigan Big Ten Champs 12-1

CUSA- 9-3 Delaware vs 9-3 Western Kentucky, Western Kentucky CUSA Champs 10-3

MAC- 9-3 Buffalo vs 9-3 Central Michigan, Buffalo MAC Champs 10-3

MW- 11-1 UNLV vs 9-3 Air Force, Air Force MW Champs 10-3

PAC 12- 10-2 Boise State vs 8-4 Texas State, Boise State PAC 12 Champs 11-2

SEC- 11-1 Georgia vs 10-2 Texas, Georgia SEC Champs 12-1

Sun Belt- 9-3 App State vs 9-3 Louisiana Tech, Louisiana Tech Sun Belt Champs 10-3

Final Playoff Rankings: Generated from all my picks made on profootballnetwork.com playoff predictor

Georgia (SEC Champ)
Michigan (B1G Champ)
Oregon
Texas Tech (Big 12 Champ)
Miami (ACC Champ)
Texas
Notre Dame
LSU
Texas A&M
Ole Miss
BYU
Tulane (AAC Champ)

Round 1 Results:

8 LSU vs 9 Texas A&M, TAMU Wins

5 Miami vs 12 Tulane, Miami Wins

7 ND vs 10 Ole Miss, Ole Miss Wins

11 BYU vs 6 Texas, Texas Wins

Quarter Finals:

1 Georgia vs 9 Texas A&M, TAMU Wins

4 Texas Tech vs 5 Miami, TTU Wins

2 Michigan vs 10 Ole Miss, Ole Miss Wins

3 Oregon vs 6 Texas, Oregon Wins

Semi Finals:

4 Texas Tech vs 9 Texas A&M, TAMU Wins

3 Oregon vs 10 Ole Miss, Ducks Win

Natty:

3 Oregon vs 9 Texas A&M, Ducks win, Oregon 2026 Champions

Top 4 Contenders (not considering potential playoff rankings or bracket):

Oregon Ducks

Regardless of how the bracket plays out Oregon is my favorite to win the Natty this season. If you follow the current B1G Ten trend along with the model that those teams were based on, the Ducks seem to be the best option. 2023 Michigan, 2024 Ohio State, and 2025 Indiana were all one of the best teams depth and talent wise those schools have ever had. Along with that they all had a factor that made them unique in CFB history Michigan had it’s running game, Ohio State had its WR trio, and Indiana had likely one of the most balanced teams we've seen. When you look at this Oregon team it's hard to deny that it is likely the best team they have ever had and without a doubt the best in the Lanning Era. Dante Moore was likely going to be a top 5 pick in the NFL draft but decided to come back for another year, that doesn’t happen very often. Moore combined with some lethal weapons on offense, a good OLine, and an elite defense makes Oregon the top threat for a title.

Ole Miss Rebels

This might seem like an outlandish pick but when you consider what it takes to win playoff football and how important roster retention is, Ole Miss is a very solid contender. Their starting QB Trinidad Chambliss thought his college career was likely over but after a few (non-criminal) court cases he is back in Oxford. Chambliss and Lacy were a tough duo to stop last year and lead an elite offense that also has an elite defense returning a lot of starters. The experience of this team is being overlooked; they are returning the most snaps in college football out of any team besides Colorado. When I was watching this team last year I was impressed by the calmness and poise they played with, especially considering their head coach left them days before their first playoff game. The Rebs are the most experienced playoff team from last season and have more fuel in the fire to win than any other school in the country.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The Irish have been put in a good position since Freeman took over to finally win a national title. Like I said with the past champions when you look at this Notre Dame team it is likely the best team they’ve had in years. They have one of the best OLs in the country and Heisman candidate CJ Carr highlighting an elite offense. On defense they most likely have the best unit in the country that is flooded with potential NFL talent. While Notre Dame seems like a perfect pick to win the Natty and doesn’t seem to have any weaknesses, my worry would be with a lighter schedule and no conference championship. I think Oregon and Ole Miss will be more tested and have more answers in a potential matchup with ND.

Texas Longhorns

With Manning and the weapons this team got in the portal Texas is a legit contender. Unfortunately for the Longhorns they decided to go all in on a season where you have the absolute wagons I mentioned above. Similar to Notre Dame they have a Heisman candidate QB and an elite OL. I think they also have a great defense but it is not better than Oregon's or Notre Dame's. This offense is good enough to win a National Title. What puts this team at 4 is they seem to get into the playoffs and be thrown off their game. Whether it's the wear and tear of the season or the pressure of the bright lights, Sark and his staff need to figure it out if they are going to win a Natty.

Best Bet: Oregon to win National Championship +800

Section 10: Final Thoughts

Heisman: Arch Manning

Dante Moore would be my favorite due to the fact he could have gone to the NFL and Oregon is my Natty pick. I think he has a very good season, likely an MVP/ Mendoza style season that is worthy of a Heisman. However I think Manning's stats will be at the usual Heisman QB level and regardless of where Texas ends up at the end the stats will be too good. The offense seems to be the side of the ball that is going to carry Texas leading to big numbers for Arch.

Heisman Dark Horse: Bryce Underwood

The sole reason I think Bryce could win the heisman is if he has a Cam Newton/ Jalen Hurts style season. With his size and running ability, Michigan could find a way to make him a running threat in the red zone and at the goal line he could stack some TDS. If he has some serious rushing TD numbers to go along with 3,000 yds and 20 TDs passing he could have a legit case.

Hot Takes/ Random Predictions: